Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide to plot your own financial data.

The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 0.227%, a change from 0.224% last week. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the maximum probability of a return to negative spreads ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), stock-split euphoria, and strong earnings growth have led the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite to multiple record-closing highs in ...

Leading economic indicators, such as the inverted yield curve, have warned that a recession is imminent. But these gauges are misleading amid strength in credit conditions, Ed Yardeni wrote on Monday.

Analysts at Truist Securities initiated coverage on 24 large-cap, regional, and trust banks, as well as credit card companies. They anticipate strong earnings growth over the next two years, ...

The decline in stock prices combined with plunging consumer sentiment and uncertainty surrounding tariffs has uncreased uncertainty about future economic growth. Since stock prices ultimately depend ...

The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that's known as an "inverted yield curve," and it's had a sterling prediction record. While ...

U.S. Treasury yields, especially the 2-year Treasury yield, are drawing attention again today. While some early reports suggested a sharp rise to 3.948%, most reliable sources including Reuters, ...